Walt Rostow was a staunch anti-Communist, a sometime White House adviser and a strong
supporter of the American military involvement in Vietnam. He saw the United States’
trade interests, economic growth and political domination being threatened by the
‘disease’ of Communism spreading throughout the ‘developing world’.
Rostow (1960) suggested that the emergent nations could, through a 5-stage process,
become wealthy consumerist societies in the mould of ‘First World’ capitalist countries
like the United States and the United Kingdom. John McKay (2004) called this a ‘beguiling
promise’ because this path to wealth was supposedly flawless, no matter how poor
the individual developing nation’s starting point.
The idea of societies developing through predictable stages to modernity had first
been proposed by Émile Durkheim (1893) who saw traditional societies organised around
‘mechanical solidarity’ (shared beliefs, occupational roles and a strong sense of
community) evolving into more complex societies organised around ‘organic solidarity’
(beliefs less likely to be shared, more specialist roles and individuation replacing
community.) In this Durkheim was reflecting Ferdinand Tonnies (1887) who distinguished
between two types of social groupings. Gemeinschaft - often translated as ‘community’
- refers to groupings based on feelings of togetherness and on mutual bonds which
are felt as a goal to be kept up - their members being the means for this goal. Gesellschaft
- often translated as
local population in technical skills. Additionally,official aid programmes could
supplement this process by paying for Western technical expertise and specialist
equipment, as could borrowing from the World Bank and commercial banks. The Modernists
argue that the wages paid to the local labour force would ‘trickle down’ and stimulate
the local economy by creating a demand for manufactured goods as living standards
start to rise. It should be noted here that Péter Tamás Bauer (1981) counters this
assertion by pointing out that aid – when not siphoned off by the elites! – often
brings down local prices, making it difficult for local producers to get a fair price
for their products.
Take-off then occurs when sector-led growth becomes common and society is driven
more by economic processes than traditions. At this point, the norms of economic
growth become well established. Eg: profit is reinvested in new technology and infrastructure
and an entrepreneurial urbanised Middle Class emerges. In discussing the take-off,
Rostow is a noted early adopter of the term ‘transition’, which is to describe the
passage of a traditional to a modern economy. After take-off, a country will take
as long as 50 to 100 years to reach maturity. (Globally, this stage occurred during
the Industrial Revolution.)
The requirements of take-off are the following two related but necessary conditions:-
- A rise in the rate of productive investment from approximately 5% or less to over
10% of national income or net national product
- The development of one or more substantial manufacturing sectors with a high rate
of growth - Rostow regards the development of leading sectors as the 'analytical
bone structure' of the stages of economic growth
After take-off there follows a long interval of sustained, if fluctuating, progress
as the now regularly growing economy drives to extend modern technology over the
whole front of its economic activity. Some 10-20% of the national income is steadily
invested, permitting output regularly to outstrip the increase in population. The
make-up of the economy changes unceasingly as technique improves, new industries
accelerate and older industries level off. The economy finds its place in the international
economy: goods formerly imported are produced at home; new import requirements develop,
and commodities are exported to match them. The society makes such terms as it will
with the requirements of modern efficient production, balancing off the new against
the older institutions, or revising the latter in such ways as to support rather
than to retard the growth process. This Drive to Maturity refers to the need for
the economy itself to diversify. The sectors of the economy which lead initially
begin to level off, while other sectors begin to take off. This diversity leads to
greatly reduced rates of poverty and rising standards of living, as the society no
longer needs to sacrifice its comfort in order to strengthen certain sectors. Birth
control is common and education widespread, in part at least financed by export earnings.
The age of High Mass Consumption refers to the period of contemporary comfort afforded
many Western nations, wherein consumers concentrate on durable goods and barely remember
the subsistence concerns of previous stages. In the age of high mass consumption,
the majority of people live in urban rather than rural areas and work in offices
or have skilled factory jobs. Life expectancy is high and citizens enjoy a comfortable
lifestyle based on conspicuous consumption. Such a society is able to choose between
concentrating on military and security issues, on equality and welfare issues, or
on developing greater luxuries for its Upper and Middle Classes. Each country in
this position chooses its own balance between these 3 goals.
Cultural Obstacles to Modernisation
For all that American aid was distributed on the principles of Modernisation Theory
in the 1960s, much of the developing word remained in real poverty, especially Africa
and South Asia. Many of these societies failed to progress beyond the traditional
stage, in spite of huge injections of Western aid.
Talcott Parsons (1964) identified ‘traditional values’ were the greatest obstacle
to development as envisaged by Rostow. People with such values were perceived to
be committed to customs, rituals and practices based on the past and, consequently,
were often fatalistic about the future. What will be will be. Alex Ingeles (1969)
noted that such people are resistant to social change and unwilling to adjust to
‘modern’ ideas and practices. Parsons was especially critical of the extended kinship
systems found in many traditional societies, arguing that these hinder geographical
mobility which he saw as essential if a society was to industrialise quickly and
effectively. Such societies also encourage ascription, particularism, patriarchy,
fatalism and collectivism, all of which undermine modernity by discouraging individual
initiative, achievement and, therefore,social change. Thus, despite being exposed
to Capitalism and rational/scientific ways of thinking - not least through colonialism
- there is an in-built resistance to change in the traditional society.
For the Modernisation theorists, values such as universalism, individualism, competition,
achievement and meritocracy, measured by examinations and qualifications, are seen
as essential to the development of an efficient, motivated and geographically mobile
factory workforce and ‘entrepreneurial spirit’. Parsons argued that political systems
bases on tribe/clan, caste or religion should be replaced democratic political systems.
Bert Hoselitz (1964) argued for the introduction of meritocratic education, paid
for by Western aid and borrowing, as a way of inculcating the upcoming generations
with such Western values. Inkeles championed the mass media as a critical agent in
disseminating ideas about the need for geographical mobility, nuclear-family units,
family planning, secular beliefs and practices, and the adoption of the democratic
process. From a slightly different angle, Daniel Lerner (1958),many of whose concepts
Rostow borrowed in building Modernisation Theory, supports the children and political
elites of developing countries being educated in Western schools, universities and
military academies so that they could disseminate Western values to their populations
when they became leaders.
Hoselitz argued that urbanisation should be encouraged in the developing world because:-
- It is easier to spread Western memes amongst a concentrated city population than
a thinly dispersed rural population. In the city the individual is free from the
tradition-derived obligations and constraints found in rural areas
- Cities have a cultural effect on the rest of society – Malcolm Cross (1979) states
“…the city is the key entry point for Western values and ideas to undeveloped societies;
the city is the nucleus for the cultural penetration of the modernising society.”
David McClelland (1961) suggests some absorption of Western capitalist values will
come about anyway, simply through trade, cultural exchange and commerce.
Modernisation theorists argue that such factors will lead to the emergence of an
entrepreneurial Middle Class who believe in change and taking risks in order to progress.
However, as J Timmons Roberts & Amy Hite (2000) point out: ‘In a traditional society
the entrepreneur is a social deviant because he is doing new and different; in a
modern society change is routine, innovation is valued, and the entrepreneur esteemed.”
The very idea that culture is at the root of the failure of traditional societies
to engage with the modernisation process has been challenged by Ronald Inglehart
& Wayne Baker (2000) who studied 61 pre-industrial societies. They found all the
cultural characteristics in place that Parsons objected to but their data suggested
these might be the result of economic insecurity and low material well-being, rather
than the cause of it.
