When combined with the knowledge of orientation toward time (past through to future)
along with the inherent drivers of that orientation, an extensive (and somewhat complex)
appreciation of using VS as foresight frameworks is added to the foresight practitioner's
understanding. For the purposes of this paper I have excluded the A-N/BEIGE and H-U/TURQUOISE
Value System codes and the diagram indicates each colour code and its ability to
cope with expanding complexity over time. As previously indicated, there is no compulsion
for development beyond any level.
We now have a useful structural model for using VS as foresight frameworks that addresses
a variety of situations for foresight strategists:-
- To what extent (i.e. - Can?) this person/entity understand the notion of future?
- If so, how does this person/entity approach thinking about the future?
- What are the influencing drivers for this person/entity in thinking about the future?
- Does this person/entity have the ability to cope with complex interpretations of
the future?
- If so, to what level and depth?
- Knowing what I know about the person/entity, what would be the most appropriate set
of foresight tools to meet the desired outcome?
- How do I build increased strategic foresight capacity in line with what this Value
System would be open to accept?
- How do I structure a foresight process that allows for transitions between Value
(thinking) Systems to occur?
These eight questions provide the consultant with set points for building a foresight
process that will more closely match the needs of the client in a way the client
can accept. They also provide clues to remind the consultant to add depth to the
client's understanding about potential future(s) and allow for changes in thinking
processes. Critically, they remind the practitioner that developing strategy that
actually works, is a process of accepting variations in thinking and how people engage
with the future.
Summary
An
understanding of Value Systems, how they influence a person's thinking of the future
and allow or constrict differing perspectives of time will provide the foresight
practitioner a much richer appreciation of how to deal with their clients.
Significantly it places an enormous responsibility on the practitioner when utilising
their foresight tool kit. Gaining a deeper understanding through something like a
Causal Layered Analysis can now be seen to have multiple perspectives. Scenarios
too are enriched when the 'storytelling' and future spaces incorporate an understanding
matched to each of the VS present during the process. Selecting an 'ideal future'
prior to a Backcasting exercise and then expecting agreement on the appropriate steps
can now be seen as no simple task when differing VS are present. Even when all are
in alignment as to each step, there is no guarantee that the 'content' will be agreed
upon.
Any futurist attempting to build foresight capacity and increase their client's or
their client's organisational foresight quotient (FtQ) (Marcus Barber, 2002) will
benefit greatly from utilising the recommendations provided with regard to each of
the VS. Knowing how to encourage engagement, being aware to how that engagement may
play out and how to further develop participation and acceptance of a foresight process
for each VS, is likely to significantly increase the client's satisfaction with regard
to the use of strategic foresight approaches.
Overall the Value System frameworks add a broader and deeper capacity for consultants
by raising their ability to handle multiple perspectives of the future and how the
issue of the future is accepted. Developing further understanding of each VS and
in particular the transitional stages between them is strongly encouraged. Taking
that enhanced knowledge and using that capability as a foresight framework will open
up a world of improved possibilities for the use of foresight.
It could be argued that ultimately, the aim of foresight is to increase the level
of contentment of our clients by giving them greater awareness of possible futures,
the alternatives available and to increase their capacity to deal with change. To
that end, I offer the following quote:-
"Happiness is that state of consciousness,
which proceeds from the achievement of one's values" - Ayn Rand (2005)
For foresight practitioners, the real challenge may be in designing processes and
outcomes that better enable people to achieve a conscious state of happiness. Using
Value Systems as foresight frameworks should go some way to realising that aim.
Suggested Further Reading on Futures and Human Values:-
'Understanding Human Values
- Individual & Societal' - Milton Rokeach (Free Press, 1979)
The field of Emergenics may also interest readers.
A useful foresight glossary can
be found at Foresight International.
